Academy Awards, 2016/2017























Prediction Accuracy: 14/21 = 67% (18/21 = 86% if including dark horse)

And the nominees are:

Best Picture 
‘Arrival’
‘Fences’
‘Hacksaw Ridge’
‘Hell or High Water’
‘Hidden Figures’
‘La La Land’
‘Lion’
‘Manchester by the Sea’ 
‘Moonlight’ - WINNER!

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Moonlight'
Should Win:  'Arrival'
Should Have Been Here:  'Jackie', 'Nocturnal Animals' or 'Silence' 

Best Director
Denis Villeneuve (‘Arrival’)
Mel Gibson (‘Hacksaw Ridge’)
Damien Chazelle (‘La La Land’) - WINNER!
Kenneth Lonergan (‘Manchester by the Sea’)
Barry Jenkins (‘Moonlight’)

Will Win:  Damien Chazelle
Dark Horse:  Barry Jenkins
Should Win:  Denis Villeneuve
Should Have Been Here:  Tom Ford ('Nocturnal Animals') or Martin Scorsese ('Silence') 

Best Leading Actor
Casey Affleck (‘Manchester by the Sea’) - WINNER!
Andrew Garfield (‘Hacksaw Ridge’)
Ryan Gosling (‘La La Land’)
Viggo Mortensen (‘Captain Fantastic’)
Denzel Washington (‘Fences’)

Will Win:  Denzel Washington
Dark Horse:  Casey Affleck
Should Win:  Casey Affleck
Should Have Been Here:  Tom Hanks ('Sully') or Colin Farrell ('The Lobster') 

Best Leading Actress
Isabelle Huppert (‘Elle’)
Ruth Negga (‘Loving’)
Natalie Portman (‘Jackie’)
Emma Stone (‘La La Land’) - WINNER!
Meryl Streep (‘Florence Foster Jenkins’)

Will Win:  Emma Stone
Dark Horse:  Isabelle Huppert
Should Win:  Isabelle Huppert
Should Have Been Here:  Amy Adams ('Arrival'), Annette Bening ('20th Century Women') or Taraji P. Henson ('Hidden Figures') 

Best Supporting Actor 
Mahershala Ali (‘Moonlight’) - WINNER!
Jeff Bridges (‘Hell or High Water’)
Lucas Hedges (‘Manchester by the Sea’)
Dev Patel (‘Lion’)
Michael Shannon (‘Nocturnal Animals’)

Will Win:  Mahershala Ali
Dark Horse:  Dev Patel
Should Win:  Mahershala Ali
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis (‘Fences’) - WINNER!
Naomie Harris (‘Moonlight’)
Nicole Kidman (‘Lion’)
Octavia Spencer (‘Hidden Figures’)
Michelle Williams (‘Manchester by the Sea’)

Will Win:  Viola Davis
Dark Horse:  Michelle Williams
Should Win:  Viola Davis
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Original Screenplay
‘Hell or High Water’ (Taylor Sheridan)
‘La La Land’ (Damien Chazelle)
‘The Lobster’ (Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthymis Filippou)
 ‘Manchester by the Sea’ (Kenneth Lonergan) - WINNER!
‘20th Century Women’ (Mike Mills)

Will Win:  'Manchester by the Sea'
Dark Horse:  'La La Land'
Should Win:  'Manchester by the Sea'
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Adapted Screenplay
‘Arrival’ (Eric Heisserer)
‘Fences’ (August Wilson)
‘Hidden Figures’ (Allison Schroeder & Theodore Melfi)
‘Lion’ (Luke Davies)
‘Moonlight’ (Barry Jenkins & Tarell Alvin McCraney) - WINNER!

Will Win:  'Moonlight'
Dark Horse:  'Arrival'
Should Win:  'Arrival'
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Cinematography
‘Arrival’ (Bradford Young) 
‘La La Land’ (Linus Sandgren) - WINNER!
‘Lion’ (Greg Fraser)
‘Moonlight’ (James Laxton)
‘Silence’ (Rodrigo Prieto) 

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Silence'
Should Win:  'Silence'
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Film Editing 
‘Arrival’ (Joe Walker) 
‘Hacksaw Ridge’ (John Gilbert) - WINNER!
‘Hell or High Water’ (Jake Roberts)
‘La La Land’ (Tom Cross)
‘Moonlight’ (Joi McMillon & Nat Sanders) 

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Hacksaw Ridge'
Should Win:  'Arrival'
Should Have Been Here:  'Manchester by the Sea' (Jennifer Lame)

Best Production Design
‘Arrival’
‘Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them’
‘Hail, Caesar!’
‘La La Land’ - WINNER!
‘Passengers’

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
Should Win:  'La La Land'
Should Have Been Here:  'Jackie' 

Best Costume Design
‘Allied’
‘Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them’ - WINNER!
‘Florence Foster Jenkins’
‘Jackie’
‘La La Land’

Will Win:  'Jackie'
Dark Horse:  'La La Land'
Should Win:  'Jackie'
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Makeup & Hairstyling 
‘A Man Called Ove’
‘Star Trek Beyond’
‘Suicide Squad’ - WINNER!

Will Win:  'Star Trek Beyond'
Dark Horse:  'A Man Called Ove'
Should Win:  'A Man Called Ove'
Should Have Been Here:  'Florence Foster Jenkins' and 'Jackie'

Best Original Score
‘Jackie’ - Mica Levi 
‘La La Land’ - Justin Hurwitz - WINNER!
‘Lion’ - Dustin O’Halloran & Volker Bertelmann
‘Moonlight’ - Nicholas Britell 
‘Passengers’ - Thomas Newman

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Jackie'
Should Win:  'La La Land'
Should Have Been Here:  'Arrival' (Johann Johannsson) and 'Nocturnal Animals' (Abel Korzeniowski) over 'Passengers' and 'Moonlight'

Best Original Song 
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” - ‘La La Land’
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” - ‘Trolls’
“City of Stars” - ‘La La Land’ - WINNER!
“The Empty Chair” - ‘Jim: The James Foley Story’
“How Far I’ll Go” - ‘Moana’

Will Win:  "City of Stars"
Dark Horse:  "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
Should Win:  "City of Stars"
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Sound Mixing
‘Arrival’
‘Hacksaw Ridge’ - WINNER!
‘La La Land’
‘Rogue One’
‘13 Hours’ 

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Hacksaw Ridge'
Should Win:  'La La Land'
Should Have Been Here:  'Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk' 

Best Sound Editing 
‘Arrival’ - WINNER!
‘Deepwater Horizon’
‘Hacksaw Ridge’
‘La La Land’
‘Sully’

Will Win:  'Hacksaw Ridge'
Dark Horse:  'La La Land'
Should Win:  'Hacksaw Ridge'
Should Have Been Here:  -

Best Visual Effects
‘Deepwater Horizon’
‘Doctor Strange’
‘The Jungle Book’ - WINNER!
‘Kubo and the Two Strings’
‘Rogue One’

Will Win:  'The Jungle Book'
Dark Horse:  'Doctor Strange'
Should Win:  'The Jungle Book'
Should Have Been Here:  'Arrival' 

Best Animated Feature
‘Kubo and the Two Strings’
‘Moana’
‘My Life as a Zucchini’
‘The Red Turtle’
‘Zootopia’ - WINNER!

Will Win:  'Zootopia'
Dark Horse:  'Kubo and the Two Strings'
Should Win:  'Kubo and the Two Strings'
Should Have Been Here:  'Your Name'

Best Foreign Language Feature 
‘A Man Called Ove’ (Sweden)
‘The Salesman’ (Iran) - WINNER!
‘Tanna’ (Australia)
‘Toni Erdmann’ (Germany)
‘Land of Mine’ (Denmark)

Will Win:  'The Salesman'
Dark Horse:  'A Man Called Ove'
Should Win:  'Toni Erdmann'
Should Have Been Here:  'Elle' or 'I, Daniel Blake'

Best Documentary 
‘Fire at Sea’ 
‘I Am Not Your Negro’
‘Life, Animated’ 
‘O.J.: Made in America’ - WINNER!
‘13th’

Will Win:  'O.J.: Made in America'
Dark Horse:  'Life, Animated'
Should Win:  'O.J.: Made in America'
Should Have Been Here:  -

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